Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 1.238931 1.405469 1.581790 1.781927 2.002335 2.237202 2.505935
2025-01-26 1.019825 1.249696 1.508112 1.818441 2.179203 2.583548 3.069110
2025-02-02 0.845628 1.116285 1.438408 1.846012 2.343669 2.926990 3.657523
2025-02-09 0.694949 0.988724 1.358712 1.851227 2.481164 3.250900 4.252546
2025-02-16 0.574932 0.881793 1.290491 1.861846 2.625472 3.595299 4.902255
2025-02-23 0.458919 0.761716 1.189048 1.816820 2.693241 3.848969 5.459567
2025-03-02 0.355689 0.641923 1.071030 1.734062 2.700865 4.023635 5.927676
2025-03-09 0.292178 0.571016 1.013339 1.729106 2.814323 4.348151 6.619045
2025-03-16 0.235478 0.500128 0.945040 1.699211 2.887511 4.620884 7.257437
2025-03-23 0.203681 0.466274 0.931048 1.751304 3.086882 5.087520 8.199706
2025-03-30 0.161115 0.402991 0.857474 1.697217 3.115680 5.303644 8.791660
2025-04-06 0.131656 0.358709 0.810216 1.680735 3.201273 5.609314 9.532784
2025-04-13 0.104731 0.314118 0.757323 1.651968 3.271127 5.907006 10.299712
2025-04-20 0.089522 0.292275 0.745286 1.696034 3.468490 6.420231 11.430780
2025-04-27 0.075783 0.270143 0.728946 1.729977 3.651331 6.922472 12.574643
2025-05-04 0.062690 0.245534 0.702815 1.741256 3.794225 7.367787 13.652588
2025-05-11 0.052057 0.224229 0.680139 1.756442 3.945273 7.836043 14.793083
2025-05-18 0.040660 0.195886 0.634852 1.717502 3.989438 8.121973 15.645899
2025-05-25 0.030151 0.165295 0.576763 1.641542 3.953015 8.262014 16.258424
2025-06-01 0.024335 0.149020 0.552745 1.639240 4.062927 8.670088 17.349308
2025-06-08 0.018950 0.131339 0.520495 1.612542 4.119420 8.982549 18.287556
2025-06-15 0.016404 0.124987 0.520264 1.664025 4.344609 9.621048 19.829350
2025-06-22 0.012256 0.107745 0.481872 1.613380 4.344654 9.832531 20.616063